Gold
On Thursday, gold prices fell nearly 1%, attributed to profit-taking after US producer price data came in below expectations.
Additionally, the Fed’s reduced forecast for rate cuts this year led to a significant rise in the dollar index, putting further pressure on gold prices.
Spot gold briefly dipped below the $2300 mark, ultimately closing down 0.92% at $2303.00 per ounce.
Due to lower energy costs, US producer prices unexpectedly dropped in May, indicating a cooling of inflation after a first-quarter surge. However, this optimism was not enough to suppress the dollar.
Fed officials unexpectedly predicted only one rate cut this year, delaying the anticipated start of cuts until possibly December. This caused the dollar to rebound, with the dollar index rising 0.49% on Thursday, closing at 105.22.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, gold faced strong downward pressure during volatile trading. In the Asian and European sessions, prices initially fell, breaking below the $2308 level before stabilizing and rebounding.
In the afternoon European session, gold slightly recovered but faced resistance at $2319, leading to another decline. In the US session, gold made a second attempt to break through the $2304 level, rising quickly and surpassing the European session’s opening fall level of $2319, continuing to rebound. However, after fluctuating around the $2325 mark, it faced pressure again and closed lower.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor shorting on rebounds and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance: $2315-$2320
- Support: $2290-$2285
Oil
On Thursday, despite OPEC+ dismissing the IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak in 2029, the overnight rebound in the dollar index put significant pressure on oil prices.
Additionally, a substantial increase in EIA crude oil inventories and rising US initial jobless claims heightened demand concerns, leading to a slight decline in oil prices.
WTI crude closed down 0.51% at $77.84 per barrel, while Brent crude closed down 0.42% at $82.12 per barrel.
OPEC Secretary-General stated on Thursday that OPEC’s long-term forecast does not see oil demand peaking, projecting an increase to 116 million barrels per day by 2045 or even higher. US initial jobless claims rose to a 10-month high last week, suggesting a weakening labor market and maintaining hopes for a Fed rate cut in September.
The dollar index surged 0.49% on Thursday, closing at 105.22, recovering all of Wednesday’s losses, which exerted additional pressure on oil prices.
On the supply side, the EIA reported that US crude inventories increased more than expected last week, mainly due to a significant rise in imports, with fuel inventories also exceeding expectations.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, oil prices faced resistance at the $78.8 level during volatile trading, leading to a downward correction and closing lower.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor shorting on rebounds and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance: $78.8-$79.3
- Support: $76.5-$76.0
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