Due to the reduced likelihood of the United States lowering interest rates early, the trend of gold is showing a fluctuating decline, closing down approximately 0.2%.  

Market attention is shifting to the PCE inflation data to be released this week. Due to market concerns about US sanctions against Russia and the escalation of the situation in the Red Sea, oil prices have risen by more than 1%. 

Gold >> 

On Monday, due to the reduced likelihood of the United States lowering interest rates early, the trend of gold showed a fluctuating decline. Spot gold closed down by 0.21% at USD 2031.26 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures closed down by 0.41% at USD 2040.9 per ounce.  

Market attention shifted to the US inflation data to be released this week. As investors sought further clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, gold entered a wait-and-see mode for the new week.  

Nevertheless, gold seems to be finding support from a weakening US dollar and tensions in the Middle East. The focus of the market this week is on the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which will be released on Thursday.  

Signs of easing price pressures and weak data may boost bets on a Fed rate cut, thus supporting zero-yield gold. Gold prices showed narrow fluctuations throughout the day yesterday.  

During the Asian-European session, there was a slight rebound but it was capped around the USD 2036 level, followed by a decline. In the afternoon, it further fell to around the USD 2030 level and entered a sideways consolidation.  

In the late US session, gold prices rebounded for the second time but were resisted around the USD 2034 level, leading to a break below and eventually stabilizing above the USD 2025 level, ending the day with a fluctuating close. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2042-2045. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2023-2020.  

WTI Crude Oil >>  

On Monday, due to market concerns about US sanctions against Russia and the escalation of the situation in the Red Sea, WTI crude oil closed up by 1.28% at USD 77.78 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed up by 1% at USD 82.48 per barrel. 

Approaching March, the upcoming OPEC meeting and its plans for production cuts in the second quarter have also become a focus of the market.  

Judging from the current statements of core OPEC+ member countries to adhere to the production cut agreement, OPEC’s stance on maintaining stability in the oil market remains very firm. Currently, what is causing market uncertainty is the demand side of the oil market.  

Looking at the demand assessments from the February reports of the three major authoritative organizations, there are significant differences, mainly due to variations in expectations for global economic growth and energy demand during the energy transition process. 

Yesterday, oil prices stabilized above the USD 75.8 level on the technical front, experiencing a strong rebound from the bottom and closing higher. During the Asian-European session, prices overall experienced a slight decline probing below the USD 75.8 level, followed by a rebound.  

In the late US session, there was a strong rally pushing prices higher, breaking through and staying above the USD 77 level, and continuing the rebound to reach the USD 78 level, closing with strength. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.8-79.3. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 76.5-76.0. 

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