The unemployment rate in the United States has risen, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates.  

Last Friday, gold recorded eight consecutive daily gains, with a weekly increase of about 4.57%, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-October and the third consecutive week of gains.  

Despite the extension of production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance, the market remains cautious about oil demand, with oil prices closing down more than 1% last Friday. 

Gold >>  

Due to the rising unemployment rate in the United States, expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially starting interest rate cuts soon have increased.  

Last Friday, gold recorded eight consecutive daily gains, with a weekly increase of about 4.57%, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-October and the third consecutive week of gains.  

Spot gold surged significantly during the U.S. session, briefly surpassing the USD 2195 mark, but failed to hold steady, ultimately closing up 0.89% at USD 2179.16 per ounce. 

COMEX gold rose for the seventh consecutive day, with a cumulative increase of nearly 7%, closing at USD 2186.2 per ounce, setting a new historical high. 

In the highly anticipated employment report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that non-farm payrolls increased by 275,000 in February. January’s data was revised down to 229,000 from an initial estimate of 353,000.  

After maintaining at 3.7% for three consecutive months, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February.

The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.1% last week, hitting a new low since January 15 at 102.32, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to a more than one-month low, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. 

Gold responded positively to the non-farm payroll data as expected, witnessing bullish momentum accelerating towards breaking the USD 2185 mark, leading to a period of consolidation and oscillation.  

Early morning, gold prices retested and stabilized around the USD 2163 mark before further accelerating upwards, ultimately breaking through the USD 2195 mark and closing strongly. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2195-2200. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2153-2160. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

Although the OPEC+ alliance extended the production cut deadline, the market remains cautious about crude oil demand, with oil prices closing down by more than 1% last Friday. WTI crude oil fell by 2.05%, closing at USD 77.93 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 1.68%, closing at USD 82.50 per barrel. 

Due to the production cuts by OPEC and Russia leading to a slowdown in exports, the supply remains relatively tight. However, demand seems to be lagging in some countries, and the driving season in the United States has not yet begun.  

On the supply side, OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed on Sunday to extend the voluntary oil production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day to the second quarter, providing additional support to the market amidst concerns about global economic growth and increased production outside the organization. 

Last Friday, crude oil prices showed slight upward pressure in technical terms, but weakened under the resistance of the USD 80 mark, leading to weak oscillations and breaking through the bottom.  

Prices rebounded during the Asia-Europe session, piercing through the USD 79.9 mark but quickly fell under pressure, further declining in the afternoon and breaking through the USD 79 mark, experiencing suppressed oscillations and consolidation.  

In the late U.S. session, prices rebounded briefly but were pressured again at the USD 78.9 mark, closing below the bottom. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.8-79.3. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 76.5-76.0. 

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