Due to Powell’s remarks leading to increased bets on rate cuts, continuous purchases by the central bank, and geopolitical tensions intensifying risk aversion sentiment, the price of gold has repeatedly hit new highs, achieving a 7-day winning streak.  

Although there was an increase in North American supply, which temporarily caused oil prices to fall by nearly 1%, the anticipation of a Fed rate cut warming up and a significant weakening of the US dollar index have led to a rebound in oil prices, coupled with improved expectations for oil import demand prospects. 

Gold >>  

On Thursday, due to Powell’s remarks leading to increased bets on rate cuts, continuous purchases by the central bank, and geopolitical tensions intensifying risk aversion sentiment, the price of gold repeatedly hit new highs, achieving a 7-day winning streak.  

Spot gold once broke above USD 2164 per ounce during intraday trading, eventually closing up 0.55% at USD 2160.02 per ounce; COMEX April gold futures closed up 0.32% at USD 2165.20 per ounce. 

The US Department of Labor stated that as of the week ending March 2nd, initial jobless claims in the United States remained at historic lows, providing the latest evidence of a vibrant labor market.  

Powell’s remarks, combined with the labor market data released that day, pushed down US Treasury yields and the US dollar, boosting gold demand.

The recent rise in gold prices has been primarily driven by continuously declining real yields and cooling inflation expectations, prompting buyers to shift from the currency market and government bonds to gold.  

The US non-farm payrolls report for February, scheduled to be released on Friday, is expected to provide clearer information on US rate cuts, which investors should focus on. 

Yesterday, gold prices experienced a volatile session with a high followed by a retreat in technical terms. Prices in the Asian and European sessions quickly rose above the USD 2148 level, then retreated near the USD 2160 level in the European session before falling again.  

In the late US session, with a slight positive impact from initial jobless claims data, gold prices rapidly rose, breaking through the USD 2164 level and then quickly falling back.  

Gold prices declined in the late US session, breaking below the USD 2148 level but stabilizing and rebounding, returning above USD 2158 in the early morning to continue the bullish trend and closing strong. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2170-2180. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2140-2135. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

On Thursday, despite an increase in North American supply which briefly caused oil prices to fall by nearly 1%, the anticipation of a Fed rate cut warming up led to a significant weakening of the US dollar index, coupled with improved demand outlook, resulting in a bottoming out and rebound in oil prices.  

WTI crude oil fluctuated upward and closed up 0.43% at USD 79.56 per barrel; Brent crude oil experienced fluctuations downward during the Asian and European sessions, but recovered lost ground during the US session, with prices almost unchanged, ultimately closing down 0.04% at USD 83.88 per barrel. 

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the oil market and industrial sectors stated that with slowing demand growth and increased supply in the Americas, the global oil market is relatively well supplied, which has put pressure on international oil prices.  

However, after Powell’s speech, the US dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of other currencies. A weaker US dollar can encourage buyers using other currencies to purchase cheaper oil, thus stimulating demand for oil. 

Yesterday, oil prices technically stabilized around the USD 78 level as expected, experiencing a strong bullish trend with a bottoming out and rebounding to close. During the Asian and European sessions, prices slightly fell and dipped near the USD 78.5 level, entering into sideways fluctuations.  

In the late US session, there were two consecutive declines breaking below the USD 78 level, stabilizing and rebounding. During the late US session, prices continued to rise, breaking through and holding above the USD 79 level, reaching near USD 79.5, before closing with fluctuations. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.5-81.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.0-77.5. 

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