Despite strong job growth in the United States in March, multiple factors including bets on US rate cuts, speculative buying, central bank purchases, and geopolitical turmoil have driven gold prices to record highs.  

Geopolitical unrest has also provided strong upward momentum for gold prices. Gold prices climbed last Friday, hitting historic highs once again.  

Supported by geopolitical tensions, concerns over supply shortages, and signs of improved global fuel demand prospects, crude oil has remained near highs not seen since October last year, posting gains for the fourth consecutive week. 

Gold >>  

Last Friday, despite strong job growth in the United States in March, multiple factors including bets on US rate cuts, speculative buying, and central bank purchases have driven gold prices to record highs. Geopolitical turmoil has also provided strong upward momentum for gold prices.  

Spot gold briefly dipped after the release of non-farm payroll data but later surged to record highs, reaching as high as USD 2330 per ounce during trading and ultimately closing up 1.7% at USD 2329.83 per ounce, marking a three-week consecutive gain. 

Data released Friday night showed that non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest gain since May 2023, exceeding expectations of a 200,000 increase.  

Investors are currently in a dilemma, on one hand hoping for a strong economy to support further corporate profit growth, and on the other hand hoping for weakness in the job market to signal a green light for Fed rate cuts.  

Amid strong data, Fed officials have become more cautious about rate cuts, considering it too early to consider such measures, citing recent high inflation data.  

The market is awaiting US CPI data and Fed meeting minutes, as well as interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank. Investors need to pay close attention. 

From a long-term trend perspective, gold maintains an upward trajectory on the weekly chart, with no opportunities for short positions as highs are repeatedly refreshed, approaching the 2400 level.  

Despite significant fluctuations in recent weeks, the overall direction remains unchanged, with prices forming solid support around 2146, indicating a volatile upward trend supported by the double bottom at 2146. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2330-2340. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2300-2290. 

WTI Crude Oil >>  

Last Friday, supported by geopolitical tensions, concerns over supply shortages, and signs of improvement in the global fuel demand outlook, crude oil maintained its position near highs not seen since October last year and posted gains for the fourth consecutive week.  

WTI May crude oil futures closed up USD 0.32 per barrel, or 0.37%, at USD 86.91 per barrel, marking a cumulative increase of 4.5% for the week. Brent crude oil closed at USD 91.17 per barrel, up USD 0.52 per barrel, or 0.57%, with a cumulative increase of 4.8% for the week. 

Market expectations of economic growth in the United States and China are expected to boost demand. Surveys show a slight decrease in OPEC oil production in March, and attacks on Russian refineries have added supply pressure, confirming a tightening supply situation.  

API and EIA data releases were more bullish than expected, indicating continued bullish sentiment in the oil market. Moreover, the latest research from Bank of America (BofA) suggests that the oil market is on the verge of a storm. 

Crude oil rose as expected last week, with bullish sentiment continuing after prices surpassed USD 83.11 per barrel. The highest point reached USD 87.6 per barrel, closing around USD 86.7 per barrel. On the weekly chart, a large bullish candle was recorded, breaking the previous high, with no new lows, indicating a bullish trend. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 87.5-88.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 85.0-84.5. 

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