Due to the retreat of risk aversion sentiment weighed against market considerations and the weakening of the US dollar index, gold prices barely held onto the 2330 level.  

Market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and the US non-farm payroll data to be released this week, in search of clues to the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.  

Meanwhile, the easing of the Middle East situation brought about by Hamas and Israel ceasefire negotiations, coupled with US inflation data denting the prospects of an impending rate cut, led to a drop in oil prices by over USD 1. 

Gold >> 

On Monday, due to the balancing act between the waning risk aversion sentiment and the weakening of the US dollar index, gold prices barely held onto the 2330 level, with spot gold maintaining volatility throughout the day.  

It reached a high of 2345 but ultimately closed down by 0.15% at USD 2334.3 per ounce. Market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and the upcoming release of US non-farm payroll data in search of clues to the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. 

Amidst global economic fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has been closely watched for its market trends. This week, the precious metals market will witness a series of important events, including the Fed’s policy decision and the release of US non-farm payroll data, which are expected to have a significant impact on the prices of gold and silver. 

Yesterday, gold’s technical outlook saw a rapid decline below the 2320 level during the Asian session, followed by a bottoming out and rebounding into a consolidation zone of mixed sentiment.  

In the afternoon European session, there was an accelerated push higher, breaking through the 2344 level before retracting and falling back.  

Eventually, during the US session, there was a second dip followed by a rebound, stabilizing around the 2325 level before oscillating back up to around 2346, where it faced resistance and ended the day with oscillating closing. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2350-2355. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2320-2315. 

WTI Crude Oil >>   

On Monday, ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel eased tensions in the Middle East, while US inflation data dampened prospects of imminent rate cuts. WTI crude oil futures settled at USD 82.63 per barrel, down USD 1.22 or 1.5%, while Brent crude oil futures settled at USD 88.40 per barrel, down USD 1.10 or 1.2%. 

Recent data shows that the US PCE price index rose by 2.7% in March, higher than February’s increase of 2.5% and above the market’s expectation of 2.6%, indicating stubborn inflation in the US. The reduced market expectation of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve contributed to the decline in oil prices.  

Another factor contributing to the decline in oil prices is the intensified ceasefire efforts between Israel and Hamas. A Hamas delegation visited Cairo on Monday for peace talks. In yesterday’s trading, oil prices fell during the Asian session to stabilize and rebound around the USD 82.9 level.  

In the afternoon, there was a further rebound but met resistance around the USD 83.9 level, leading to weak downward fluctuations. During the US session, the decline continued, breaking through the USD 82.9 level and reaching around USD 82.4 at weak closing. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 84.0-84.5. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 81.5-81.0. 

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