Gold
On Monday, gold prices rose by 0.22%, supported by short-covering from some investors and weaker-than-expected US June ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
Spot gold climbed above the $2330 level, closing at $2331.73 per ounce. The market’s focus now shifts to US employment data due later this week, which could provide further clues on a potential Fed rate cut.
US manufacturing continued to contract for the third consecutive month in June, with the input prices index falling to a six-month low, indicating that inflation may continue to decline.
This week’s highlights include Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Tuesday, the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, and the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, gold maintained its recent pattern of narrow-range consolidation. During the Asian and European sessions, prices briefly dipped to $2319 before rebounding strongly.
The US session saw a rapid surge past the $2338 level, followed by a pullback and further consolidation. By the close, prices had stabilized around the $2319 level.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds.
- Resistance: $2345-$2350
- Support: $2318-$2313
Oil
On Monday, oil prices rose about 2%, reaching a two-month high, driven by expectations of increased summer driving demand in the Northern Hemisphere and concerns that the Gaza conflict might spread and disrupt global oil supplies.
WTI crude closed up 2.35% at $83.35 per barrel, while Brent crude closed up 2.06% at $86.61 per barrel.
Since the onset of the Gaza conflict, there have been growing fears of a full-scale war. The OPEC+ alliance has extended most of its oil production cuts until 2025, leading analysts to predict a supply shortage in the third quarter as summer transportation and air conditioning demand deplete fuel inventories.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, oil prices continued their strong upward trend. After a brief dip to $81.7 during the Asian and European sessions, prices rebounded strongly. The US session saw further acceleration, breaking through the $82.5 level and continuing higher, eventually closing near $83.6.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds.
- Resistance: $84.5-$85.0
- Support: $82.2-$81.7
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