Gold
On Tuesday, US retail sales data fell short of expectations, reinforcing hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, which led to a decline in both the dollar and US Treasury yields, pushing gold prices up by 0.45%.
Spot gold initially fell below the $2310 level but then surged back, briefly reaching $2330 before closing up 0.45% at $2329.35 per ounce.
The US Census Bureau reported a 0.1% increase in May retail sales, weaker than the 0.3% expected by economists. New York Fed President Williams indicated that rates will gradually decrease over time but did not specify when the Fed might begin easing monetary policy.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, gold experienced a strong “V-shaped” recovery after initial declines. During the Asian and European sessions, prices fell from resistance at $2325 to around $2306 before stabilizing and rebounding.
In the evening US session, gold initially surged to $2324 but quickly fell back, then fluctuated between $2315 and $2318 before making a strong recovery, eventually breaking above $2330 and closing with gains.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds.
- Resistance: $2340-$2345
- Support: $2315-$2310
Oil
On Tuesday, escalating tensions in Europe and the Middle East threatened global supply, combined with increased market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, and a falling dollar, supported oil prices.
WTI crude rose above $80, closing up 0.95% at $80.67 per barrel, while Brent crude closed up 0.98% at $84.79 per barrel.
A Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in Russia’s southern Azov port, causing a fire, contributed to rising oil prices. Markets are also watching for US inventory data due this week, a crucial indicator of summer driving season demand.
The dollar index fell 0.06% on Tuesday, giving up about 0.2% gains from earlier, which also supported oil prices, as weak retail sales data pointed to fatigued US consumers, bolstering the case for a Fed rate cut later this year.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, oil prices dipped slightly during the Asian and European sessions but found strong support at $79.1, rebounding strongly.
In the evening US session, oil surged past the $80 mark, continuing to rise and closing at the day’s high, marking a new recent high and indicating a bullish breakout in the overall technical pattern.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds.
- Resistance: $82.5-$83.0
- Support: $80.5-$80.0
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