Gold
On Wednesday, gold prices surged over 1%, hitting a near two-week high. This was driven by recent US data indicating a weakening labor market and dovish signals from the Fed meeting minutes, which increased market bets on a rate cut in September.
The dollar index fell sharply to a nearly three-week low. Spot gold soared by $35 at one point, reaching a high of $2364.93 per ounce, and closed up 1.09% at $2354.77 per ounce, marking its highest level in nearly two weeks.
US initial jobless claims increased last week, and the number of unemployed people rose to a two-and-a-half-year high at the end of June, aligning with the ADP data that showed a cooling labor market.
Following the data release, the dollar fell 0.33%, closing at 105.34, with an intraday low of 105.04, the lowest since June 13, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury also declined.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, gold saw a steady rise amid volatile trading. During the Asian and European sessions, prices briefly dipped to the $2326 level before rebounding. In the afternoon, gold accelerated past the $2340 resistance level and continued to surge.
The US session saw further gains, driven by positive ADP data, pushing gold above the $2350 mark and closing strongly near $2364.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor shorting on rebounds and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance: $2368-$2373
- Support: $2347-$2342
Oil
On Wednesday, oil prices rose about 1%, reaching a two-month high. Despite an unexpected increase in US crude and gasoline supplies, concerns about rising global inventories limited gains.
WTI crude closed up 0.56% at $83.56 per barrel, while Brent crude closed up 0.57% at $87.03 per barrel.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a significant decrease in US crude inventories, and optimistic expectations for summer fuel demand drove oil prices higher. The oil market remains delicately balanced between tight supply and recovering demand.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a substantial decrease in US crude inventories of 9.163 million barrels for the week ending June 28, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 700,000-barrel decrease. This provided strong support for oil prices, although a 2.468 million-barrel increase in gasoline inventories slightly tempered the bullish signals.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, oil prices remained in a narrow consolidation. During the Asian and European sessions, prices dipped slightly to the $82.5 level before rebounding. In the U.S. session, oil briefly surged past the $83.9 level before settling into a range and closing.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds.
- Resistance: $84.5-$85.0
- Support: $82.5-$82.0
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